Tri-Valley Cities Real Estate

 

This report focuses on the markets of Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore and Castro Valley, but sometimes includes data on Alameda County (depending on the availability of data), or additional markets to the north, to add further context.

 

With April’s end, we now have 2 months of spring season data unaffected by market activity at the end of 2018, when financial markets plunged. As of early May 2019, stock markets have recovered to hit new highs (though some volatility has subsequently developed), and interest rates have dropped well below last year’s peak.

 

Bay Area real estate markets have warmed up, but have not yet duplicated the extremely hot, very high demand market conditions of spring 2018. And, generally speaking, the substantial year-over-year home price appreciation rates commonly seen since 2012 have not shown up in 2019, at least not so far.

 

Monthly Median House Sales Price - 2 Years Around the Bay Area, the general trend has been year-over-year stability in median sales prices or small percentage declines.

 

Monthly Median House Sales Price - 2 Years Around the Bay Area, the general trend has been year-over-year stability in median sales prices or small percentage declines.

 

The Tri-Valley area hit its all-time peak home price in May-June 2018, and full Q2 2019 data will give us much more insight into sales price trends. This chart is also an excellent illustration of how seasonality plays out in real estate markets.

 

This table compares the March-April market statistics of 2018 and 2019. Generally speaking, some year-over-year softening in the supply and demand dynamics has occurred, with an increase in listings, average days on market, and price reductions, and declines in sales volume and overbidding. Median sales prices are about the same as last year at this time, plus or minus a few percentage points - the changes are probably not statistically relevant.

 

Home Sales by Price Segment & Bedroom Count An illustration of the last 12 months of house and condo sales broken out by price range and number of bedrooms.

 

House Sales Volumes, Median Prices & Median Sizes The next chart breaks out the number of detached house sales over the past 12 months by city - throughout the Tri-Valley, Diablo Valley and Lamorinda markets - with median house sales prices, median square footage, and median bedroom/ bathroom count. (Median means half the sales were for more, or larger size, and half for less, or smaller size.)

Condo Sales Volumes, Median Prices & Median Sizes

 

Higher-Price Home Sales

 

Tri-Valley + San Ramon & Danville

Q1 2019 Luxury Home Market, $2 Million+ Pleasanton dominates this highest-priced segment of the Tri-Valley market. This market was relatively active in Q1, but note the differences between median list prices, median sales prices, and the median asking prices for those listings which expired without selling. The pool of potential buyers for more expensive homes is much smaller than for the general market and correct pricing is, as always, a critical issue.

 

Q2 is typically the most active quarter of the year for higher-price home sales.

Home Size & Era of Construction

 

Many factors influence home construction size during any particular period: Affluence, economic conditions, household size, buyer age, land costs, population growth, highway construction, natural disasters, etc. Generally speaking, the median size of houses built earlier in the 20th century was somewhat larger than those built during the mid-century period - during and right after WWII. When the population and housing construction started to soar in the 1960's and 1970's, median home size began to rapidly increase until, currently, it is larger than ever. This bigger-house dynamic is common around the Bay Area.

Over recent decades, condos have become a major alternative for people purchasing homes of smaller size.

 

Selected Demographic & Economic Factors

 

Population Growth by County

Increases in population obviously play a large role in housing markets, as they pressurize demand. Alameda County is not the most populous county in the Bay Area - that is Santa Clara County - but, since 2010, it has seen the highest growth rates by both numeric and percentage increase (10.4%). For the latest 12-month period measured by the census, through July 1, 2018, its increase in residents far outstripped other Bay Area counties (where growth has markedly slowed): Alameda continues to be a big destination for those relocating to or within the region.

Commuting in Alameda County

 

Venture Capital Investment

 

In recent years, the Bay Area has been the biggest destination of venture capital investment dollars in the country - and probably the world. These tens of billions of dollars have constituted a massive factor in the local economy, supercharging the creation of new companies, hiring, and, eventually, IPOs. Effectively, venture capital is seed money that in the last decade has exploded into the creation of stupendous amounts of new wealth.

It is impossible to know how median and average value statistics apply to any particular home without a specific comparative market analysis.

 

IThese analyses were made in good faith with data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and are subject to revision. It is not our intent to convince you of a particular position, but to attempt to provide straightforward data and analysis, so you can make your own informed decisions. Median and average statistics are enormous generalities: There are hundreds of different markets in San Francisco and the Bay Area, each with its own unique dynamics. Median prices and average dollar per square foot values can be and often are affected by other factors besides changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are much more meaningful than short-term.

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.